Rams @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff59°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

1-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

2-1 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

LAR -4.5

✓ PHI W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 24–19 PHI

✓ LAR (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -1.5

CloseLAR -4.5

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -1.5

3 → LAR

CloseLAR -4.5

3 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open47.5

▼ 5

Close42.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -1.5 · closed LAR -4.5 · moved 3 toward LARmodel LAR -4

model LAR -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (96 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -1.5

CloseLAR -4.5

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 4.5-point road favorite at PHI, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 5; 40.7 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ PIT 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	27–30	L	O42.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Loose	PHI @ TEN 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	24–20	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
PHI LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; PHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
PHI OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 228 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
PHI	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

LAR 5–12 PHI PHI leads · 17 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Los Angeles Rams 26 @ Philadelphia Eagles 33	PHI -3.5	PHI W
Jan 19 2024	Los Angeles Rams 22 @ Philadelphia Eagles 28	PHI -7.5	LAR W
Nov 24 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 37 @ Los Angeles Rams 20	PHI -2.5	PHI W
Oct 8 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 23 @ Los Angeles Rams 14	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.3▲ 0.3#3

PHI+1.1 →−0.4▼ 1.5#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

LAR

Longer bar = better

PHI

#13

Offense

◀ LAR better

#22

Defense

◀ LAR better

#18

−1.0 #26

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−1.7 #31

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ LAR faster

57 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #20	23.0 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #5	5.14 #13	LAR
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	+0.08 #25	LAR
Success rate	46% #12	45% #18	LAR

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	PHI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #25	21.0 #13	LAR
Yards / play	5.27 #14	4.57 #2	LAR
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.07 #8	LAR
Success rate	39% #28	41% #8	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.7 #14	7.7 #12	12.3 #11	2.3 #25	5.7 #20	8.0 #23
PHI allowed	5.7 #21	4.0 #4	9.7 #8	5.7 #20	7.7 #19	13.3 #23

PHI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0 #32	11.7 #2	11.7 #13	2.0 #28	4.7 #25	6.7 #27
LAR allowed	1.0 #4	3.3 #2	4.3 #2	8.7 #30	8.0 #20	16.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.