Cowboys @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

1-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

0-3 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

HOU -3

✓ DAL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 22–25 HOU

✗ HOU (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -3

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -2.5

0.5 → HOU

CloseHOU -3

0.5 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -2.5 · closed HOU -3 · moved 0.5 toward HOUmodel HOU -2

model HOU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (193 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -3

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 34–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 3.3; 50.3 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	DAL vs WSH 2026 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	37–20	W	O51.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	HOU vs CIN 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	6–20	L	U45.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LWP	1-1-1	50%	0-1	0-0-1
HOU LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
HOU OUU	1-2	33%	0-3

Went over in Q4. Of 161 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	4-6 40%	2-6-1 25%	9-1 90%
HOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DAL 5–3 HOU DAL leads · 8 games since 2002 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2024	Houston Texans 34 @ Dallas Cowboys 10	HOU -7.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−0.6 →−0.8▼ 0.2#18

HOU+2.4 →+0.9▼ 1.5#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DAL

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ DAL better

#25

#29

Defense

HOU better ▶

#13

0.0 #20

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.3 #14

59 plays #24

Pace

HOU faster ▶

67 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #9	25.0 #19	DAL
Yards / play	5.60 #9	5.36 #16	DAL
EPA / play	+0.18 #5	−0.01 #14	DAL
Success rate	49% #7	38% #3	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #26	27.3 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.84 #25	6.02 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	+0.19 #32	HOU
Success rate	40% #26	54% #32	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	6.7 #5	5.7 #18	12.3 #11	8.3 #6	8.7 #7	17.0 #5
HOU allowed	2.0 #6	12.7 #32	14.7 #28	4.3 #12	6.0 #15	10.3 #12

HOU scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	2.3 #22	8.0 #10	10.3 #18	1.0 #31	6.7 #16	7.7 #26
DAL allowed	4.7 #15	9.0 #28	13.7 #25	5.7 #20	8.0 #20	13.7 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.