Titans @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

0-3 · Power #32

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

2-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -11.5

✓ TEN W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 16–28 BAL

✓ BAL (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -8.5

CloseBAL -11.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -8.5

3 → BAL

CloseBAL -11.5

3 pts toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open47.5

▼ 6

Close41.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -8.5 · closed BAL -11.5 · moved 3 toward BALmodel BAL -11.5 matches the line

model BAL -11.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 57% (56 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -8.5

CloseBAL -11.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as an 11.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 24–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 42 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 11.9; 45.3 points a game (usually 48.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JAX vs NYJ 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	48–20	W	O40.5
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Loose	NE vs NYJ 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & spread	-12.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Loose	NE vs MIA 2025 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	38–10	W	O43.5
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-10	31–17	W	O39.5
Loose	PHI vs LV 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-12.5	31–0	W	U36.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
BAL WLP	1-1-1	50%	0-1	1-1-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOU	1-2	33%	0-3
BAL OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 209 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BAL	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 9–13 BAL BAL leads · 22 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2023	Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Tennessee Titans 16	BAL -5.5	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−3.1 →−4.6▼ 1.5#32

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TEN

Longer bar = better

BAL

#25

Offense

BAL better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ TEN better

#17

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.3 #13

52 plays #32

Pace

BAL faster ▶

59 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	TEN off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	12.3 #30	26.0 #21	BAL
Yards / play	4.76 #26	5.13 #11	BAL
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	43% #19	45% #17	Even

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #4	19.7 #10	BAL
Yards / play	6.72 #2	4.90 #8	BAL
EPA / play	+0.19 #3	+0.03 #20	BAL
Success rate	54% #2	43% #14	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #19	1.0 #31	4.3 #31	2.3 #25	5.7 #20	8.0 #23
BAL allowed	5.3 #20	5.3 #10	10.7 #12	4.7 #15	10.7 #30	15.3 #27

BAL scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	9.3 #1	11.3 #3	20.7 #1	3.3 #18	6.7 #16	10.0 #21
TEN allowed	3.3 #12	7.7 #19	11.0 #14	5.3 #19	3.3 #6	8.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.