Steelers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Thu, Oct 1, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff80°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-1 · Power #17

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

2-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

✓ CLE W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 20–18 CLE

✗ PIT (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -2.5

ClosePIT -2.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -2.5

no move

ClosePIT -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▼ 2

Close38.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -2.5 · unchangedmodel PIT -1

model PIT -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (172 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -2.5

ClosePIT -2.5

Total40.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 2.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 38.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 3; 41.8 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	24–27	L	O38.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Close	NO @ TEN 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	34–26	W	O38.5
Close	PIT @ CLE 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	6–13	L	U34.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Close	NYG @ LV 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-3	34–10	W	O40.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
CLE LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
CLE OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 128 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–41.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
CLE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

PIT 42–14 CLE (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 6 @ Cleveland Browns 13	PIT -3.5	CLE W
Oct 12 2025	Cleveland Browns 9 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 23	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Dec 8 2024	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Nov 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ Cleveland Browns 24	PIT -3.5	CLE W
Nov 19 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 10 @ Cleveland Browns 13	CLE -2.5	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →−0.8▼ 0.3#19

CLE−1.8 →−3.0▼ 1.2#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

PIT

Longer bar = better

CLE

#27

Offense

CLE better ▶

#23

#16

Defense

Even

#17

+0.7 #11

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.3 #21

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ PIT faster

56 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #26	23.7 #18	CLE
Yards / play	4.79 #24	5.38 #18	CLE
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	0.00 #17	CLE
Success rate	39% #27	43% #16	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #24	20.0 #11	PIT
Yards / play	4.78 #25	5.52 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.04 #12	PIT
Success rate	41% #21	45% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.7 #6	5.3 #21	11.0 #15	2.3 #24	4.3 #26	6.7 #26
CLE allowed	6.7 #25	5.3 #10	12.0 #20	7.7 #26	4.0 #8	11.7 #18

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #31	4.3 #23	5.3 #30	4.3 #16	8.3 #9	12.7 #13
PIT allowed	7.0 #27	4.3 #5	11.3 #16	3.0 #8	5.7 #12	8.7 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.