Colts vs Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 4 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

1-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

1-2 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

IND -4.5

✓ IND W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 26–21 WSH

✓ IND (66%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSH -1.5

CloseIND -4.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IND LWW	2-1	67%	—	—
WSH WLW	2-1	67%	—	2-1

Venue/role: IND neutral, as favorite; WSH neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
WSH OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WSH	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 6–2 WSH IND leads · 8 games since 1999 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND+0.7 →−1.7▼ 2.4#26

WSH−1.6 →−2.0▼ 0.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

IND

Longer bar = better

WSH

#21

Offense

Even

#19

#30

Defense

Even

#29

−1.7 #28

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.7 #11

62 plays #14

Pace

WSH faster ▶

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	30.7 #31	IND
Yards / play	4.71 #29	6.36 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	+0.08 #26	Even
Success rate	43% #16	47% #27	IND

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #13	30.3 #29	WSH
Yards / play	4.73 #27	6.49 #32	WSH
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	+0.17 #31	WSH
Success rate	42% #21	50% #29	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.3 #11	10.0 #6	15.3 #6	1.0 #30	6.7 #15	7.7 #25
WSH allowed	3.3 #11	10.3 #30	13.7 #24	6.7 #24	10.3 #27	17.0 #30

WSH scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.3 #18	8.7 #9	12.0 #13	3.3 #17	9.7 #5	13.0 #12
IND allowed	8.0 #31	10.3 #30	18.3 #32	2.3 #5	7.7 #18	10.0 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.