Colts @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff60°F10 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-2 · Power #21

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-2 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -3

✓ PIT W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 21–24 PIT

✓ PIT (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -2.5

ClosePIT -3

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -2.5

0.5 → PIT

ClosePIT -3

0.5 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open47.5

▼ 5

Close42.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -2.5 · closed PIT -3 · moved 0.5 toward PITmodel PIT -1.5

model PIT -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (197 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -2.5

ClosePIT -3

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 34–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 3; 34.9 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs CAR 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	6–13	L	U39.5
Close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	CLE vs MIA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	31–6	W	O35.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	NE vs PIT 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	20–3	W	U41.5
Loose	MIN vs ATL 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	6–22	L	U44.5
Loose	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
PIT WLWL	2-2	50%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
PIT UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 232 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

IND 4–12 PIT PIT leads · 16 games since 2002 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2025	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27	IND -3.5	PIT W
Sep 29 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 24 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	PIT -2.5	IND W
Dec 16 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 13 @ Indianapolis Colts 30	IND -1	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND+0.7 →−1.5▼ 2.2#24

PIT−0.5 →−0.8▼ 0.3#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

IND

Longer bar = better

PIT

#22

Offense

◀ IND better

#25

Defense

PIT better ▶

#18

−1.5 #32

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.5 #13

63 plays #11

Pace

Even

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #13	21.8 #14	Even
Yards / play	4.49 #30	5.65 #21	PIT
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	0.00 #14	PIT
Success rate	43% #19	46% #24	IND

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #24	26.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #24	6.18 #31	PIT
EPA / play	−0.11 #29	+0.07 #26	Even
Success rate	41% #24	44% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.0 #19	10.0 #4	14.0 #5	3.3 #21	7.5 #13	10.8 #21
PIT allowed	5.3 #20	8.5 #26	13.8 #27	2.3 #3	5.8 #11	8.0 #5

PIT scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.0 #5	4.8 #27	10.8 #16	1.8 #30	6.8 #16	8.5 #27
IND allowed	7.5 #31	7.8 #22	15.3 #31	3.5 #6	5.8 #11	9.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.