Steelers @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff80°F13 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-2 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-4 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

✓ PIT W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–19 TB

✓ PIT (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -1.5

ClosePIT -2.5

Total45.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:32

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:49 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -1.5

4 → PIT

ClosePIT -2.5

4 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open45.5

▼ 8

Close37.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TB -1.5 · closed PIT -2.5 · moved 4 toward PITmodel TB -2.5

model TB -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (181 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -1.5

ClosePIT -2.5

Total45.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	PIT	TB	Over	Under	PIT	TB
BetMGMMGM	-1.5-110	+1.5-108	38-110	38-108	-125	+105
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-1.5-112	+1.5-108	38.5-105	38.5-115	-123	+103
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-112	+1.5-109	39-110	39-110	-129	+107
BetUSBetUS	-1-120	+1+100	38-110	38-110	-125	+105
BovadaBovada	-2-105	+2-115	38-110	38-110	-130	+110
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	37.5-112	37.5-108	-142	+120
FanDuelFD	-2.5+100	+2.5-122	38.5-102	38.5-120	-126	+108
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-1.5-107	+1.5-103	38.5-102	38.5-113	-123	+103
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2-110	+2-110	38-110	38-110	-131	+111

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 2.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 26–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.2 against an average line of 2.3; 41.8 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	16–10	W	U36
Loose	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form	-3	11–34	L	O39
Loose	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Loose	SEA @ TEN 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	20–17	P	U42.5
Loose	JAX @ TEN 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	20–28	L	O41
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-3	19–27	L	O41
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Loose	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1	31–28	W	O42
Loose	ATL @ NYJ 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	13–8	W	U33

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLWLW	3-2	60%	0-2	2-1
TB LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-3	1-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2
TB OOUUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 87 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 7–1 TB PIT leads · 8 games since 2001 · PIT has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →−0.4▲ 0.1#17

TB−0.2 →−0.6▼ 0.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

PIT

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

◀ PIT better

#24

#18

Defense

TB better ▶

#12

+0.4 #14

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.4 #20

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ PIT faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	PIT off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #18	22.4 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #16	5.29 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #21	−0.06 #7	TB
Success rate	42% #21	42% #9	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	TB off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #25	21.8 #13	PIT
Yards / play	5.04 #21	5.46 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	0.00 #18	PIT
Success rate	41% #23	44% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	6.2 #4	5.8 #20	12.0 #15	2.8 #28	7.4 #12	10.2 #25
TB allowed	6.8 #28	6.6 #14	13.4 #25	4.0 #6	5.0 #5	9.0 #7

TB scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #24	5.4 #21	8.6 #25	7.4 #7	4.0 #30	11.4 #18
PIT allowed	5.4 #20	8.2 #23	13.6 #27	3.0 #4	5.2 #7	8.2 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.