Chargers @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff67°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

0-5 · Power #25

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

4-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -7.5

✓ KC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 17–25 KC

✓ KC (75%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -2.5

CloseKC -7.5

Total46.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:13

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:54 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -2.5

5 → KC

CloseKC -7.5

5 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open46.5

▼ 5

Close41.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened KC -2.5 · closed KC -7.5 · moved 5 toward KCmodel KC -8

model KC -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (123 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 30% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -2.5

CloseKC -7.5

Total46.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LAC	KC	Over	Under	LAC	KC
BetMGMMGM	+7.5-112	-7.5-105	41.5-110	41.5-108	+333	-425
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	41.5-115	41.5-105	+344	-440
BetRiversBetRivers	+7.5-112	-7.5-109	41.5-108	41.5-113	+320	-420
BetUSBetUS	+8-115	-8-105	41.5-110	41.5-110	+338	-430
BovadaBovada	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	41.5-110	41.5-110	+345	-470
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-112	-7.5-108	41.5-112	41.5-108	+350	-455
FanDuelFD	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	41.5-110	41.5-110	+310	-390
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+8.5-129	-8.5+117	41.5-107	41.5-107	+344	-440
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	41.5-110	41.5-110	+321	-407

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like KC as a 7.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 7, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 22–6; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 8 similar games. 28 points stayed under 41.5, as in 2 of 8.

Favorite won

7 of 888%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

1 of 714%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 60%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 8.5; 48.9 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SEA vs LAC 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	30–23	P	O43.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.5	23–26	L	O43.5
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Loose	BAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–31	L	O42
Loose	MIN vs MIA 2026 · Week 4 · loose	-10	15–10	L	U38.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	34–31	L	O44.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form & situation	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	BAL vs TEN 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-11.5	24–18	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLLPL	0-4-1	0%	0-1-1	0-2-1
KC WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUUOU	1-4	20%	0-5
KC UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	2-8 20%	2-7-1 22%	2-8 20%
KC	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAC 23–32 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 14 2025	Los Angeles Chargers 16 @ Kansas City Chiefs 13	KC -5.5	LAC W
Sep 5 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Los Angeles Chargers 27	KC -3.5	LAC W
Dec 8 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -5.5	LAC W
Sep 29 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 10	KC -7.5	LAC W
Jan 7 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 13 @ Los Angeles Chargers 12	LAC -3.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−1.8▼ 2.4#24

KC+0.7 →+3.2▲ 2.5#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

LAC

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

KC better ▶

#12

Defense

KC better ▶

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+1.3 #1

62 plays #19

Pace

KC faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #30	19.3 #7	KC
Yards / play	4.75 #24	4.98 #7	KC
EPA / play	−0.21 #32	−0.05 #8	KC
Success rate	38% #29	41% #6	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #5	25.8 #23	KC
Yards / play	6.54 #2	5.03 #10	KC
EPA / play	+0.17 #4	−0.06 #6	Even
Success rate	49% #5	42% #10	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	4.0 #18	2.6 #30	6.6 #28	7.6 #6	2.6 #32	10.2 #26
KC allowed	7.0 #31	4.8 #6	11.8 #20	1.5 #1	5.3 #6	6.8 #2

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	7.8 #2	6.0 #21	13.8 #6	4.3 #20	10.0 #2	14.3 #7
LAC allowed	4.2 #15	8.4 #25	12.6 #23	4.0 #12	9.2 #27	13.2 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.