Broncos @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F14 mphDryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

2-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

0-4 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

DEN -3

✓ DEN W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 21–18 LAC

✓ DEN (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseDEN -3

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

5.5 → DEN

CloseDEN -3

5.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · closed DEN -3 · moved 5.5 toward DENmodel DEN -1

model DEN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (147 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseDEN -3

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 3-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 23–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2.6; 45 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU @ BAL 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	44–10	W	O41.5
Close	LV @ NO 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–10	W	U37.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Loose	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar total	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Loose	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Loose	LAR @ ARI 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	37–14	W	O45
Loose	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Loose	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Loose	ARI @ NYG 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–36	L	O43.5
Loose	SEA @ TEN 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	20–17	P	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWWL	2-2	50%	0-2	2-0
LAC LLLP	0-3-1	0%	0-2	0-1-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2
LAC UUUO	1-3	25%	0-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LAC	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DEN 33–23 LAC DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Los Angeles Chargers 3 @ Denver Broncos 19	DEN -15.5	DEN W
Sep 21 2025	Denver Broncos 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 23	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 19 2024	Denver Broncos 27 @ Los Angeles Chargers 34	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Oct 13 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 23 @ Denver Broncos 16	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 31 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 9 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →0.0▼ 1.2#14

LAC+0.6 →−1.2▼ 1.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DEN

Longer bar = better

LAC

#23

Offense

◀ DEN better

#28

#19

Defense

Even

#17

−0.3 #19

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−0.8 #27

58 plays #25

Pace

LAC faster ▶

61 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #27	26.5 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #25	5.27 #13	LAC
EPA / play	−0.02 #16	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	41% #22	44% #17	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #29	23.5 #18	DEN
Yards / play	5.01 #23	5.58 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #32	+0.06 #23	DEN
Success rate	40% #26	44% #16	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.5 #28	0.8 #31	3.3 #32	5.5 #13	9.8 #2	15.3 #6
LAC allowed	3.5 #11	9.8 #30	13.3 #24	5.0 #20	8.3 #24	13.3 #25

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.0 #11	2.5 #29	7.5 #27	6.0 #11	3.3 #32	9.3 #27
DEN allowed	3.5 #11	7.3 #19	10.8 #15	5.0 #20	7.8 #20	12.8 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.