Texans @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

0-4 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

0-4 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

✓ HOU W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 23–17 TEN

✓ HOU (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -3.5

CloseHOU -6.5

Total43.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -3.5

3 → HOU

CloseHOU -6.5

3 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open43.5

▼ 6

Close37.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -3.5 · closed HOU -6.5 · moved 3 toward HOUmodel HOU -5.5

model HOU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 46% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -3.5

CloseHOU -6.5

Total43.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 6.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 26–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 37.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 5.7; 31.1 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ TEN 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–20	L	O39.5
Close	LAR @ PHI 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–20	L	O42.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Loose	SF @ CLE 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	26–8	W	U35.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Loose	GB @ NYG 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	22–24	L	O37
Loose	TB @ NYG 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	30–7	W	U40.5
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-3
TEN LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUO	2-2	50%	0-4
TEN UOUO	2-2	50%	0-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

HOU 25–24 TEN HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2025	Houston Texans 16 @ Tennessee Titans 13	HOU -5.5	TEN W
Sep 28 2025	Tennessee Titans 0 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -7.5	HOU W
Jan 5 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Tennessee Titans 14	TEN -2.5	HOU W
Nov 24 2024	Tennessee Titans 32 @ Houston Texans 27	HOU -7.5	TEN W
Dec 31 2023	Tennessee Titans 3 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -5.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+0.4▼ 2.0#12

TEN−3.1 →−4.7▼ 1.6#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

HOU

Longer bar = better

TEN

#19

Offense

◀ HOU better

#26

#17

Defense

Even

#15

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.8 #25

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ HOU faster

54 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #20	20.8 #9	TEN
Yards / play	5.41 #14	5.24 #12	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.06 #24	HOU
Success rate	42% #21	43% #13	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #31	27.3 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.86 #26	5.39 #15	HOU
EPA / play	−0.09 #25	+0.04 #21	Even
Success rate	41% #23	39% #5	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.3 #13	7.5 #11	11.8 #12	2.5 #24	6.8 #16	9.3 #23
TEN allowed	4.3 #14	10.0 #29	14.3 #29	4.0 #8	2.5 #2	6.5 #3

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	4.3 #13	0.8 #31	5.0 #30	2.5 #24	6.3 #20	8.8 #26
HOU allowed	2.3 #5	10.3 #30	12.5 #19	6.8 #25	8.0 #21	14.8 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.