Buccaneers @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-4 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

2-2 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

DAL -8.5

✓ TB W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 19–28 DAL

✗ DAL (78%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -3.5

CloseDAL -8.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -3.5

5 → DAL

CloseDAL -8.5

5 pts toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -3.5 · closed DAL -8.5 · moved 5 toward DALmodel DAL -8

model DAL -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 42% (74 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 33% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -3.5

CloseDAL -8.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as an 8.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 24–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 8; 49.1 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-8.5	23–26	L	O43.5
Loose	BUF vs NE 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-7	26–29	L	O49.5
Loose	DET vs GB 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-8.5	22–29	L	O47
Loose	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · loose	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5
Loose	GB vs SF 2024 · Week 12 · loose	-6.5	38–10	W	O44.5
Loose	DET vs CHI 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-8	31–26	L	O48
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2023 · Week 6 · loose	-7.5	26–9	W	U47.5
Loose	SEA vs LAC 2026 · Week 4 · loose	-7	30–23	P	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-2
DAL LWPW	2-1-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOUU	2-2	50%	0-4
DAL OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	2-8 20%	0-10 0%	4-6 40%
DAL	4-6 40%	2-6-1 25%	10-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 7–9 DAL DAL leads · 16 games since 2000 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 @ Dallas Cowboys 26	TB -4.5	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB−0.2 →−1.7▼ 1.5#25

DAL−0.6 →−0.4▲ 0.2#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

DAL

#28

Offense

DAL better ▶

Defense

◀ TB better

#31

−1.3 #28

Turnovers

DAL better ▶

0.0 #18

60 plays #20

Pace

DAL faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #24	28.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.66 #29	6.36 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.20 #32	Even
Success rate	39% #28	53% #32	Even

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #3	24.0 #19	DAL
Yards / play	5.56 #13	4.96 #6	TB
EPA / play	+0.17 #6	−0.06 #5	Even
Success rate	48% #8	40% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	4.0 #19	5.0 #23	9.0 #25	5.0 #15	5.0 #23	10.0 #21
DAL allowed	6.0 #24	8.3 #25	14.3 #27	6.0 #24	7.8 #18	13.8 #25

DAL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.8 #7	5.0 #23	10.8 #16	9.8 #3	10.0 #1	19.8 #1
TB allowed	6.8 #28	7.5 #18	14.3 #27	5.0 #17	4.8 #5	9.8 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.