Bears @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

3-1 · Power #4

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

2-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

✓ GB W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 24–22 GB

✗ CHI (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -3

CloseCHI -1.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3

4.5 → CHI

CloseCHI -1.5

4.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3 · closed CHI -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward CHImodel CHI -2.5

model CHI -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 55% (108 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 26% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -3

CloseCHI -1.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like CHI as a 1.5-point road favorite at GB, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 31–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 8 similar games. 38 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 8.

Favorite won

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.6; 43.5 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O42.5
Loose	ARI @ SEA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	6–16	L	U46.5
Loose	SEA @ ARI 2025 · Week 4 · loose	-1.5	23–20	W	U43.5
Loose	HOU @ BAL 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	44–10	W	O41.5
Loose	LAR @ PHI 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	24–20	L	O42.5
Loose	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Loose	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
GB LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as favorite; GB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1
GB OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 51% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
GB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CHI 16–41 GB GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 10 2025	Green Bay Packers 27 @ Chicago Bears 31	GB -1.5	CHI W
Dec 20 2025	Green Bay Packers 16 @ Chicago Bears 22	CHI -1.5	CHI W
Dec 7 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Green Bay Packers 28	GB -6.5	GB W
Jan 5 2024	Chicago Bears 24 @ Green Bay Packers 22	GB -10.5	CHI W
Nov 17 2024	Green Bay Packers 20 @ Chicago Bears 19	GB -6.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+3.8▲ 3.4#3

GB+0.9 →−1.1▼ 2.0#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CHI

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ CHI better

#25

#11

Defense

◀ CHI better

#19

+0.3 #16

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.5 #21

75 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

59 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #8	26.3 #23	CHI
Yards / play	5.76 #10	4.99 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.11 #9	+0.04 #22	CHI
Success rate	48% #7	46% #22	CHI

When GB has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #28	16.3 #4	CHI
Yards / play	5.23 #16	5.88 #27	GB
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	−0.06 #5	CHI
Success rate	39% #28	41% #6	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.8 #2	6.5 #16	14.3 #4	7.8 #5	6.0 #21	13.8 #10
GB allowed	2.5 #6	7.8 #22	10.3 #13	5.3 #20	10.8 #32	16.0 #29

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.0 #19	6.8 #14	10.8 #16	2.5 #24	4.3 #27	6.8 #30
CHI allowed	2.5 #6	7.5 #19	10.0 #12	2.5 #4	3.8 #4	6.3 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.