Bengals @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff71°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

2-0 · Power #15

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ PIT W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 23–20 PIT

✗ CIN (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -1.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -1.5

2 → CIN

CloseCIN -3.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open47.5

▼ 5

Close42.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -1.5 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel CIN -1.5

model CIN -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (152 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -1.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total47.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 4; 36.9 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Close	IND @ JAX 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	19–36	L	O44.5
Close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Loose	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Loose	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Loose	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
PIT WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OU	1-1	50%	2-0
PIT UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CIN 16–41 PIT PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2025	Cincinnati Bengals 12 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	PIT -5.5	PIT W
Oct 16 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 31 @ Cincinnati Bengals 33	PIT -5.5	CIN W
Jan 4 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	CIN -2.5	PIT W
Dec 1 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 44 @ Cincinnati Bengals 38	CIN -3.5	PIT W
Dec 23 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	CIN -3	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.2 →+0.2▲ 1.4#16

PIT−0.5 →−1.0▼ 0.5#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CIN

Longer bar = better

PIT

#19

Offense

◀ CIN better

#32

Defense

Even

+1.5 #2

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

+0.5 #13

61 plays #14

Pace

PIT faster ▶

66 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #10	16.5 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #22	5.14 #13	PIT
EPA / play	−0.05 #19	−0.20 #3	PIT
Success rate	39% #25	40% #9	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	11.5 #32	16.5 #8	CIN
Yards / play	3.81 #32	5.05 #9	CIN
EPA / play	−0.33 #32	−0.22 #2	CIN
Success rate	35% #31	39% #6	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	6.5	4.5	11.0
PIT allowed	7.0	1.5	8.5	3.0	5.0	8.0

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	1.5	6.5	8.0	0.0	3.5	3.5
CIN allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	6.5	3.5	10.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.