Falcons @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff62°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

0-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

1-1 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

GB -4.5

✓ ATL W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 20–24 GB

✗ GB (67%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -7.5

CloseGB -4.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -7.5

3 → ATL

CloseGB -4.5

3 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -7.5 · closed GB -4.5 · moved 3 toward ATLmodel GB -7

model GB -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (148 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 33% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -7.5

CloseGB -4.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 4.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 35–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 4.8; 41.1 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Close	LV vs TEN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-4.5	20–10	W	U41.5
Loose	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & situation	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Loose	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & spread	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5
Loose	WSH vs CHI 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	20–40	L	O45
Loose	CAR vs NO 2025 · Week 10 · loose	-5.5	7–17	L	U38.5
Loose	LV vs NE 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	21–17	W	U40.5
Loose	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · loose	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Loose	DAL vs NYG 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	40–37	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
GB LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UU	0-2	0%	0-2
GB OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
GB	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 9–8 GB ATL leads · 17 games since 2001 · ATL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Green Bay Packers 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 25	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.6 →−3.4▼ 2.8#31

GB+0.9 →+0.5▼ 0.4#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ATL

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

GB better ▶

#23

#12

Defense

Even

#11

−3.0 #32

Turnovers

GB better ▶

−1.0 #26

62 plays #11

Pace

◀ ATL faster

59 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	ATL off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	8.0 #32	28.0 #26	GB
Yards / play	4.23 #31	3.94 #2	GB
EPA / play	−0.40 #32	−0.07 #11	GB
Success rate	37% #29	37% #4	GB

When GB has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	GB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #19	27.0 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #13	4.87 #8	ATL
EPA / play	−0.20 #29	−0.08 #10	ATL
Success rate	36% #30	38% #6	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 0 teams

ATL scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.5	1.5	5.0	1.5	1.5	3.0
GB allowed	1.5	7.0	8.5	7.0	12.5	19.5

GB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.5	8.5	13.0	1.5	5.0	6.5
ATL allowed	6.5	10.0	16.5	7.0	3.5	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.