Falcons @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Mon, Oct 5, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

1-2 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

1-2 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

NO -1.5

✓ ATL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–23 NO

✗ NO (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseNO -1.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -2.5

1 → ATL

CloseNO -1.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open45.5

▲ 3

Close48.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -2.5 · closed NO -1.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel NO -2

model NO -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (120 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseNO -1.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 1.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 45–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.1 against an average line of 2.5; 48.1 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Close	ATL vs DAL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	27–21	W	U51.5
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
NO WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
NO OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 164 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NO	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

ATL 23–32 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Atlanta Falcons 19	ATL -3.5	NO W
Nov 23 2025	Atlanta Falcons 24 @ New Orleans Saints 10	NO -1.5	ATL W
Nov 10 2024	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 20	ATL -4.5	NO W
Sep 29 2024	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 26	ATL -2.5	NO W
Jan 7 2023	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 48	NO -3	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.6 →−1.6▼ 1.0#24

NO−1.2 →−0.7▲ 0.5#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ATL

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

NO better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ ATL better

#25

−2.0 #32

Turnovers

Even

−1.3 #30

63 plays #11

Pace

NO faster ▶

74 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #28	27.7 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #14	5.32 #15	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #30	+0.07 #26	Even
Success rate	47% #11	50% #31	ATL

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #10	22.7 #15	NO
Yards / play	5.17 #17	4.98 #6	ATL
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	−0.05 #8	ATL
Success rate	47% #10	39% #3	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.7 #11	4.3 #27	9.0 #24	3.3 #20	4.7 #24	8.0 #27
NO allowed	5.7 #22	6.7 #13	12.3 #18	7.7 #29	5.3 #12	13.0 #22

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	2.0 #28	4.3 #27	6.3 #29	10.3 #1	8.3 #10	18.7 #3
ATL allowed	6.7 #28	6.7 #13	13.3 #24	4.7 #16	4.7 #5	9.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.