Vikings @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

4-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

1-3 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ MIN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 23–20 NO

✓ MIN (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -1.5

1 → MIN

CloseMIN -2.5

1 pt toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -1.5 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 1 toward MINmodel MIN -2.5 matches the line

model MIN -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (177 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (130 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 23–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 3.3; 40.5 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–30	L	O42.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	HOU @ PIT 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	PIT @ CLE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	19–24	L	O36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1
NO WWLL	2-2	50%	0-2	2-0

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0
NO OUOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
NO	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 11–7 NO MIN leads · 18 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	New Orleans Saints 19 @ Minnesota Vikings 27	NO -3	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+1.7▲ 1.6#10

NO−1.2 →−2.0▼ 0.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MIN

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

NO better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ MIN better

#30

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−1.3 #29

60 plays #20

Pace

NO faster ▶

73 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	32.0 #32	MIN
Yards / play	4.40 #32	5.81 #26	NO
EPA / play	−0.10 #28	+0.15 #30	Even
Success rate	33% #32	52% #32	Even

When NO has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	NO off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #10	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	5.04 #20	4.86 #4	MIN
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	−0.18 #1	MIN
Success rate	44% #14	33% #1	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.8 #12	5.8 #19	10.5 #21	2.5 #24	8.5 #10	11.0 #17
NO allowed	7.8 #32	7.5 #19	15.3 #31	7.5 #27	7.5 #19	15.0 #28

NO scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.5 #30	5.0 #24	6.5 #29	8.5 #3	9.8 #2	18.3 #2
MIN allowed	4.8 #16	3.3 #1	8.0 #3	4.0 #8	0.8 #1	4.8 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.