Colts @ Vikings: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Minnesota Vikings

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

IND 28%

72% MIN

Spread

MIN -6.5

earliest MIN -3

Total

41.5

model 43.5

Spread edge

IND by 0.5

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 5:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenMIN -3

CurrentMIN -6.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Last update5:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenMIN -3

3.5 → MIN

NowMIN -6.5

3.5 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open47.5

▼ 6

Now41.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened MIN -3 · now MIN -6.5 · moved 3.5 toward MINmodel MIN -6

model MIN -6

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Already at the modelModel vs the opening line: MIN by 3.1 pts (open -3, now -6.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 63.8% of the 69 games where the line moved (86 at that gap), but those sides covered 39.5% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (150 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 24% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 5:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenMIN -3

CurrentMIN -6.5

Total47.5 → 41.5

Last update5:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	IND	MIN	Over	Under	IND	MIN
BetMGMMGM	+6.5-110	-6.5-108	41.5-108	41.5-110	+230	-285
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+6.5-116	-6.5-104	41.5-110	41.5-110	+230	-280
BetRiversBetRivers	+6.5-113	-6.5-108	41.5-113	41.5-108	+230	-295
BetUSBetUS	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	41.5-110	41.5-110	+235	-280
BovadaBovada	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	41.5-105	41.5-115	+240	-290
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-112	-6.5-108	41.5-110	41.5-110	+235	-290
FanDuelFD	+6.5-115	-6.5-105	41.5-110	41.5-110	+235	-290
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+6.5-112	-6.5+101	41.5-107	41.5-107	+230	-280
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	41.5-110	41.5-110	+232	-295

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 5:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	IND	MIN	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+3.5-108	-3.5-110	10.5-1000	10.5+600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3.5-115	-3.5-105	21-105	21-115
BetRiversBetRivers	+3.5-115	-3.5-107	20.5-114	20.5-109
BetUSBetUS	+3.5-115	-3.5-105	21-105	21-115
BovadaBovada	+3.5-115	-3.5-105	21-105	21-115
DraftKingsDK	+3.5-112	-3.5-108	20.5-112	20.5-108
FanDuelFD	+3.5+100	-3.5-120	20.5+100	20.5-120

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

IND +6.5

MIN -6.5

Bets49% 51%

Money48% 52%

Winner

IND

MIN

Bets9% 91%

Money22% 78%

Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on IND

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 6.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 6.8; 52.2 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs LAC 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	22–6	W	U41.5
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	41–7	W	O37.5
Loose	SEA vs LAC 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7	30–23	P	O43.5
Loose	BAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	37–31	L	O42
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	NO vs CHI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	24–17	W	P41
Loose	ARI vs SF 2024 · Week 18 · loose	-4.5	47–24	W	O42.5
Loose	BUF vs TB 2025 · Week 11 · loose	-6.5	44–32	W	O44.5
Loose	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & situation	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Loose	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	43–20	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	@ JAX	L17–23LU
Nov 8	vs DAL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs MIA	W33–8WU

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 1	@ DET	W23–10WU
Nov 9	vs BUF	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ GB	W39–22WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IND 6–2 MIN IND leads · 8 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2024	Indianapolis Colts 13 @ Minnesota Vikings 21	MIN -5.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

IND

Longer bar = better

MIN

#20

Offense

◀ IND better

#27

#25

Defense

MIN better ▶

−1.3 #32

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+1.2 #1

67 plays #6

Pace

◀ IND faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	IND off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	4.67 #24	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	42% #19	33% #1	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	27.3 #27	MIN
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.97 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.07 #26	Even
Success rate	36% #32	44% #19	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

MIN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.