Cowboys @ Colts: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Indianapolis Colts

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

DAL 55%

45% IND

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

52.5

model 52

Spread edge

IND by 1

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -1.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDAL -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -1.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 2.1; 46.7 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL @ GB 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	13–23	L	U54.5
Very close	CHI @ ATL 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	31–23	W	O50.5
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	17–34	L	O50.5
Very close	CHI @ CIN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	47–42	W	O51.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–0	W	U51.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Close	ATL @ ARI 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	26–19	W	U48.5
Close	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Close	DAL @ CHI 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	14–31	L	U50.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-2	1-3
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 108 games with totals 49.5–55.5, 52% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Dallas Cowboys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs SF	L24–30LO
Nov 22	vs TEN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 26	vs PHI	W24–21WU

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs MIA	W33–8WU
Nov 19	@ HOU	W19–17WU
Nov 29	vs NYG	L33–45LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 4–3 IND DAL leads · 7 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DAL

Longer bar = better

IND

#11

Offense

◀ DAL better

#20

#30

Defense

IND better ▶

#25

−0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

−1.3 #32

63 plays #15

Pace

IND faster ▶

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	27.3 #27	DAL
Yards / play	5.49 #13	5.97 #28	DAL
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.07 #26	DAL
Success rate	47% #9	44% #19	DAL

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	26.5 #25	IND
Yards / play	4.67 #24	6.04 #31	IND
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	+0.16 #32	IND
Success rate	42% #19	49% #32	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

IND scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.