Jaguars @ Ravens: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Baltimore Ravens

Kickoff forecast59°F12 mphDryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

JAX 35%

65% BAL

Spread

BAL -4.5

Total

49.5

model 45

Spread edge

JAX by 3

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBAL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3.8; 51.9 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	0-2	1-3-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ TEN	W41–7WO
Nov 22	@ NYG	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	vs TEN	W41–7WO

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs LAC	W30–23WO
Nov 22	@ CAR	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ HOU	L10–44LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 7–11 BAL BAL leads · 18 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Baltimore Ravens 23 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 7	BAL -4	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

JAX

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

Even

#14

Defense

Even

#13

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

+0.3 #14

60 plays #23

Pace

Even

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	22.0 #15	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.04 #12	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	−0.03 #14	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	42% #9	Even

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	17.3 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.82 #26	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.04 #12	BAL
Success rate	48% #5	43% #13	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

BAL scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.