Bengals vs Falcons: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 9:30 AM ESTWeek 9 · Neutral site

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Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

Sun 9:30 AM ET

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

CIN 68%

32% ATL

Spread

CIN -5.5

Total

49.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

ATL by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -5.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -5.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like CIN as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 4.6; 46 points a game (usually 46). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs ATL 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	31–25	W	O48.5
Loose	DEN vs NYJ 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	13–11	L	U43.5
Loose	IND vs WSH 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	30–13	W	U46.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5
Loose	BAL vs DAL 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	34–31	P	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	—	1-3
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	—	2-3

Venue/role: CIN neutral, as favorite; ATL neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cincinnati Bengals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs PIT	L27–30LO
Nov 23	@ WSH	L33–38LO
Nov 29	vs NO	No meeting since 2023

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs KC	L17–22LU
Nov 29	@ MIN	W22–6WU
Dec 6	vs DET	L6–20

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 3–3 ATL Series tied · 6 games since 2002 · CIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CIN

Longer bar = better

ATL

#10

Offense

◀ CIN better

#15

#17

Defense

Even

#15

+0.4 #12

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−1.2 #31

62 plays #17

Pace

◀ CIN faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	25.5 #23	CIN
Yards / play	5.49 #12	5.03 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.02 #16	CIN
Success rate	47% #8	42% #11	Even

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	21.8 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.61 #23	ATL
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.03 #15	CIN
Success rate	44% #13	43% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

ATL scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.