Broncos @ Panthers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

DEN 59%

41% CAR

Spread

DEN -3

Total

42.5

model 44.5

Spread edge

CAR by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -3

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDEN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (152 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -3

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 3-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 2.6; 47.9 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ CHI 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	7–27	L	U42.5
Very close	NYJ @ PIT 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	15–37	L	O40.5
Very close	PHI @ MIN 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	28–22	W	O44.5
Very close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Very close	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	19–27	L	O41
Very close	TB @ NO 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	51–27	W	O42.5
Very close	IND @ GB 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–16	L	U41.5
Very close	HOU @ BAL 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	44–10	W	O41.5
Close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar total & season form	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-0
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs LV	W24–17LO
Nov 27	@ PIT	L6–13
Dec 6	vs MIA	L20–70

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ NO	L17–20LU
Nov 22	vs BAL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 30	@ TB	L14–16WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 6–2 CAR DEN leads · 8 games since 2004 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	Carolina Panthers 14 @ Denver Broncos 28	DEN -12.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DEN

Longer bar = better

CAR

#28

Offense

CAR better ▶

Defense

◀ DEN better

#17

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #9

57 plays #30

Pace

CAR faster ▶

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	DEN off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	24.6 #21	CAR
Yards / play	4.40 #31	5.38 #18	CAR
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.01 #17	CAR
Success rate	38% #28	42% #12	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	20.8 #11	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	5.05 #13	CAR
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	44% #14	40% #4	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

CAR scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.