Rams @ Commanders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Washington Commanders

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

LAR 69%

31% WSH

Spread

LAR -5.5

Total

50.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

LAR by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -5.5

Total50.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAR -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now50.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (73 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -5.5

Total50.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 5.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 5.1; 51 points a game (usually 46). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-5	17–20	L	U46
Close	SF @ TB 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U50.5
Close	CIN @ DAL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–20	W	U50.5
Close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Close	BUF @ LV 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	33–30	L	O54.5
Close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	BAL @ MIN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–19	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1

In 221 games with totals 47.5–53.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ ARI	L16–18LU
Nov 25	vs GB	L19–24LU
Dec 3	vs KC	No meeting since 2023

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ NYG	T27–27LO
Nov 23	vs CIN	W38–33WO
Nov 29	@ ARI	W42–14WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 7–7 WSH Series tied · 14 games since 2000 · LAR has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Washington Commanders 20 @ Los Angeles Rams 28	LAR -6.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LAR

Longer bar = better

WSH

#12

Offense

◀ LAR better

#19

#13

Defense

◀ LAR better

#26

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+1.0 #3

68 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAR faster

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	28.7 #29	LAR
Yards / play	5.87 #8	5.58 #22	LAR
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	+0.07 #24	LAR
Success rate	47% #7	48% #29	LAR

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	WSH off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	23.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #18	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.04 #10	LAR
Success rate	41% #21	44% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

WSH scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.