Browns @ Saints: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New Orleans Saints

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

CLE 38%

62% NO

Spread

NO -3.5

Total

41.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

CLE by 1

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNO -3.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNO -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNO -3.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 3.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 3.3; 48.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs LV 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	23–20	L	O42.5
Very close	WSH vs NYG 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–27	L	O41.5
Very close	SEA vs PIT 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4	23–30	L	O40.5
Very close	PIT vs IND 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	34–22	W	O42.5
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Very close	IND vs TB 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	27–20	W	O44.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Very close	ATL vs NO 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Very close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	4-2
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-3	1-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs HOU	L14–45LO
Nov 29	vs LV	W24–10WU
Dec 6	vs CIN	W20–18WU

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs CAR	W20–17WU
Nov 22	@ CHI	L14–26LU
Nov 29	@ CIN	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 4–4 NO Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 17 2024	Cleveland Browns 14 @ New Orleans Saints 35	CLE -1.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CLE

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

NO better ▶

#19

#10

Defense

◀ CLE better

#29

0.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ CLE better

−0.5 #23

59 plays #26

Pace

NO faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	29.7 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.84 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.07 #25	Even
Success rate	40% #26	49% #31	CLE

When NO has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	NO off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.03 #10	CLE
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.03 #13	CLE
Success rate	42% #20	42% #10	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

NO scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.