Browns @ Steelers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Kickoff forecast57°F6 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

CLE 34%

66% PIT

Spread

PIT -4.5

open PIT -5.5

Total

38.5

model 39.5

Spread edge

PIT by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenPIT -5.5

CurrentPIT -4.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenPIT -5.5

1 → CLE

NowPIT -4.5

1 pt toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open39.5

▼ 1

Now38.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -5.5 · now PIT -4.5 · moved 1 toward CLEmodel PIT -5.5

model PIT -5.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenPIT -5.5

CurrentPIT -4.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CLE	PIT	Over	Under	CLE	PIT
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+4-115	-4-105	39-110	39-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	39-113	39-108	+188	-235
BetUSBetUS	+4-115	-4-105	39-110	39-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	38.5-110	38.5-110	+170	-205
FanDuelFD	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	38.5-110	38.5-110	+176	-210
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+4-110	-4+100	39-107	39-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 38.5Under 38.5

Bets79% 21%

Money69% 31%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on Under 38.5

Winner

CLE

PIT

Bets12% 88%

Money26% 74%

Money is 14 pts ahead of bets on CLE

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 4.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 4.5; 44 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Close	NE vs CLE 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	32–13	W	O40.5
Close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5
Close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	NYJ vs NE 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	24–3	W	U39.5
Close	NYJ vs CLE 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	17–12	W	U38.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	4-2
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 249 games with totals 35.5–41.5, 53% went over; 5% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ NO	L14–35LO
Nov 15	vs HOU	L14–45LO
Nov 29	vs LV	W24–10WU

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ CIN	W30–27WO
Nov 22	@ PHI	L13–27LU
Nov 27	vs DEN	W13–6

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CLE 14–42 PIT (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2026	Pittsburgh Steelers 24 @ Cleveland Browns 27	PIT -2.5	CLE W
Dec 28 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 6 @ Cleveland Browns 13	PIT -3.5	CLE W
Oct 12 2025	Cleveland Browns 9 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 23	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Dec 8 2024	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Nov 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ Cleveland Browns 24	PIT -3.5	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CLE

Longer bar = better

PIT

#27

Offense

PIT better ▶

#21

#10

Defense

Even

0.0 #17

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.5 #10

59 plays #26

Pace

PIT faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	21.3 #12	PIT
Yards / play	4.53 #29	4.99 #8	PIT
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	−0.06 #5	PIT
Success rate	40% #26	42% #7	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.03 #10	CLE
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.03 #13	CLE
Success rate	41% #23	42% #10	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.