Steelers @ Bengals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

PIT 37%

63% CIN

Spread

CIN -3.5

Total

47.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

CIN by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.3; 43 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	1-1
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ PHI	L13–27LU
Nov 27	vs DEN	W13–6
Dec 6	vs HOU	L6–30LU

Cincinnati Bengals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ WSH	L33–38LO
Nov 29	vs NO	No meeting since 2023
Dec 6	@ CLE	L18–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

PIT 41–16 CIN PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2026	Cincinnati Bengals 27 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 30	CIN -3.5	PIT W
Nov 16 2025	Cincinnati Bengals 12 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	PIT -5.5	PIT W
Oct 16 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 31 @ Cincinnati Bengals 33	PIT -5.5	CIN W
Jan 4 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	CIN -2.5	PIT W
Dec 1 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 44 @ Cincinnati Bengals 38	CIN -3.5	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PIT

Longer bar = better

CIN

#21

Offense

CIN better ▶

#10

Defense

◀ PIT better

#17

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #12

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	21.8 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.61 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.03 #15	CIN
Success rate	41% #23	43% #14	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	21.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #12	4.99 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.06 #5	Even
Success rate	47% #8	42% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.