Texans @ Steelers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

HOU 55%

45% PIT

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

41.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -1.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowHOU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -1.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 1.8; 44.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Very close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Very close	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	27–6	W	U42
Very close	GB @ DEN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	26–34	L	O42.5
Very close	SEA @ TEN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	20–17	P	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ WSH	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs JAX	W34–31WO
Dec 24	@ PHI	No meeting since 2023

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ JAX	L10–20LU
Dec 20	vs BAL	W26–24WO
Dec 27	vs CAR	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 4–5 PIT PIT leads · 9 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 12 2025	Houston Texans 30 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 6	HOU -3	HOU W
Oct 1 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 6 @ Houston Texans 30	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

HOU

Longer bar = better

PIT

#14

Offense

◀ HOU better

#21

#15

Defense

PIT better ▶

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #10

63 plays #14

Pace

PIT faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	HOU off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	21.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #11	4.99 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.06 #5	PIT
Success rate	43% #16	42% #7	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	PIT off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	23.8 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.18 #14	HOU
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	0.00 #18	HOU
Success rate	41% #23	41% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

PIT scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.