Packers @ Saints: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New Orleans Saints

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

GB 66%

34% NO

Spread

GB -4.5

Total

45.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

NO by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowGB -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 4.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 4.1; 39.3 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	17–20	L	U46
Very close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Very close	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Very close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Very close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Very close	TB @ NO 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	23–3	W	U45.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	20–23	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-3	2-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs BUF	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs MIA	W30–17WU
Dec 25	@ CHI	W31–7WU

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ CAR	W20–17WU
Dec 20	@ TB	W24–20WO
Dec 27	vs ARI	L13–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GB 6–6 NO Series tied · 12 games since 2002 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 23 2024	New Orleans Saints 0 @ Green Bay Packers 34	GB -14.5	GB W
Sep 24 2023	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Green Bay Packers 18	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

Even

#19

#10

Defense

◀ GB better

#29

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.5 #23

61 plays #22

Pace

NO faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	29.7 #31	GB
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.84 #27	GB
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.07 #25	GB
Success rate	40% #25	49% #31	GB

When NO has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	NO off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	20.8 #10	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #23	4.64 #3	GB
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.06 #7	GB
Success rate	42% #20	44% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

NO scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.