Saints @ Panthers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

NO 40%

60% CAR

Spread

CAR -2.5

Total

43.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

CAR by 2.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCAR -2.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCAR -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCAR -2.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAR as a 2.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 3.2; 39.3 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	10–12	L	U43
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Very close	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Very close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Very close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	28–15	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	3-0	2-1
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; CAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ TB	W24–20WO
Dec 27	vs ARI	L13–20LU
Jan 3	@ ATL	L24–45LO

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs CIN	L24–34LO
Dec 27	@ PIT	No meeting since 2023
Jan 3	vs SEA	L10–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NO 31–24 CAR NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 14 2025	Carolina Panthers 17 @ New Orleans Saints 20	CAR -2.5	NO W
Nov 9 2025	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Carolina Panthers 7	CAR -5.5	NO W
Nov 3 2024	New Orleans Saints 22 @ Carolina Panthers 23	NO -7.5	CAR W
Sep 8 2024	Carolina Panthers 10 @ New Orleans Saints 47	NO -3.5	NO W
Dec 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 6 @ New Orleans Saints 28	NO -5.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

CAR

#19

Offense

CAR better ▶

#29

Defense

CAR better ▶

#17

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

CAR better ▶

+0.6 #9

67 plays #5

Pace

Even

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	24.6 #21	NO
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.38 #18	CAR
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	42% #20	42% #12	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: CAR offense

	CAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	29.7 #31	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	5.84 #27	CAR
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	+0.07 #25	CAR
Success rate	44% #14	49% #31	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

CAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.