Falcons @ Browns: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Cleveland Browns

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

ATL 46%

54% CLE

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

40.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

ATL by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCLE -1.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCLE -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now40.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCLE -1.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 1.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 2.2; 40.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Very close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Very close	CHI vs ATL 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–17	W	O39.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	MIN vs WSH 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	31–0	W	U43.5
Very close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Very close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Very close	NYJ vs CLE 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–12	W	U38.5
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	NO vs ATL 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	10–24	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-3
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	—

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 371 games with totals 37.5–43.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ WSH	W34–27WO
Dec 27	vs TB	W29–28WO
Jan 3	vs NO	W45–24WO

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ NYG	L15–21LU
Dec 27	@ BAL	W13–10WU
Jan 3	vs IND	W39–38LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 2–4 CLE CLE leads · 6 games since 2002 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ATL

Longer bar = better

CLE

#15

Offense

◀ ATL better

#27

#15

Defense

CLE better ▶

#10

−1.2 #31

Turnovers

CLE better ▶

0.0 #17

60 plays #24

Pace

Even

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	ATL off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.03 #10	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.03 #13	CLE
Success rate	44% #13	42% #10	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	CLE off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	25.5 #23	ATL
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.03 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	−0.02 #16	ATL
Success rate	40% #26	42% #11	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

CLE scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.