Steelers @ Jaguars: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Mon, Dec 14, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

PIT 38%

62% JAX

Spread

JAX -3

Total

44.5

model 44.5

Spread edge

JAX by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -3

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowJAX -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -3

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 3.4; 42 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	NE vs LAC 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	16–3	W	U45.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	34–20	W	O46.5
Very close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	DEN vs IND 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–13	W	O43.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–27	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	1-1
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs BAL	W26–24WO
Dec 27	vs CAR	No meeting since 2023
Jan 3	@ TEN	W20–16WP

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ HOU	L31–34LO
Dec 27	@ DAL	No meeting since 2023
Jan 3	vs WSH	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 9–11 JAX JAX leads · 20 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 10	JAX -2.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

PIT

Longer bar = better

JAX

#21

Offense

JAX better ▶

Defense

◀ PIT better

#14

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.8 #4

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	PIT off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.82 #26	PIT
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	41% #23	43% #13	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	21.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #9	4.99 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	−0.06 #5	Even
Success rate	48% #6	42% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

JAX scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.