Commanders @ Jaguars: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 17 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

WSH 36%

64% JAX

Spread

JAX -3.5

Total

48.5

model 48

Spread edge

JAX by 4

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -3.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowJAX -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -3.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 3.3; 42.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	34–20	W	O46.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Close	SF vs DEN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-3	24–14	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs DAL	L20–37LO

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ IND	W23–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 6–1 JAX WSH leads · 7 games since 2000 · WSH has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

WSH

Longer bar = better

JAX

#19

Offense

JAX better ▶

#26

Defense

JAX better ▶

#14

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #4

64 plays #11

Pace

◀ WSH faster

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	WSH off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.82 #26	WSH
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.04 #12	Even
Success rate	41% #21	43% #13	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	28.7 #29	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.58 #22	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.07 #24	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	48% #29	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

JAX scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.