Commanders @ Vikings: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 16 · at Minnesota Vikings

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

WSH 40%

60% MIN

Spread

MIN -2.5

Total

46.5

model 43

Spread edge

MIN by 3.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -2.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -2.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.1; 38.1 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	34–20	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ JAX	No meeting since 2023
Jan 10	vs DAL	L20–37LO

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ NYJ	W23–17WU
Jan 10	vs CHI	W9–3WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSH 4–9 MIN MIN leads · 13 games since 2004 · MIN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Washington Commanders 0 @ Minnesota Vikings 31	MIN -1.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

WSH

Longer bar = better

MIN

#19

Offense

◀ WSH better

#27

#26

Defense

MIN better ▶

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

Even

+1.2 #1

64 plays #11

Pace

◀ WSH faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	WSH off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	5.12 #18	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	41% #21	33% #1	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	28.7 #29	MIN
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.58 #22	WSH
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.07 #24	Even
Success rate	36% #32	48% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

MIN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.