Rams @ Seahawks: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Fri, Dec 25, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

Fri 8:15 PM ET

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · Power #1

projected

LAR 45%

55% SEA

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

47.5

model 45

Spread edge

LAR by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -1.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSEA -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -1.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 1.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2; 53.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Very close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–27	L	O46
Close	DEN vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	33–30	W	O45.5
Close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	LAR vs SEA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	17–16	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	0-1
SEA WLPLL	1-3-2	25%	0-1-2	1-3-2

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
SEA UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
SEA	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ TB	W34–7WU
Jan 10	vs SEA	L27–31LO

Seattle Seahawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ CAR	W27–10WU
Jan 10	@ LAR	W31–27WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAR 24–28 SEA SEA leads · 52 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 25 2025	Los Angeles Rams 27 @ Seattle Seahawks 31	SEA -2.5	SEA W
Dec 18 2025	Los Angeles Rams 37 @ Seattle Seahawks 38	SEA -1.5	LAR W
Nov 16 2025	Seattle Seahawks 19 @ Los Angeles Rams 21	LAR -3.5	SEA W
Jan 5 2024	Seattle Seahawks 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 25	SEA -7.5	LAR W
Nov 3 2024	Los Angeles Rams 26 @ Seattle Seahawks 20	LAR -2	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

SEA+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

LAR

Longer bar = better

SEA

#12

Offense

◀ LAR better

#19

#13

Defense

SEA better ▶

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

SEA better ▶

−0.2 #19

68 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAR faster

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	LAR off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	20.3 #6	SEA
Yards / play	5.87 #8	3.96 #1	SEA
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.13 #2	SEA
Success rate	47% #7	37% #2	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	SEA off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #13	23.0 #18	SEA
Yards / play	5.26 #17	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	−0.04 #10	LAR
Success rate	41% #22	44% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
SEA allowed	2.8 #7	9.2 #28	12.0 #20	2.8 #3	5.0 #6	7.8 #3

SEA scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.0 #18	4.8 #25	8.8 #24	7.2 #6	8.7 #7	15.8 #4
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.