Bills @ Broncos: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Fri, Dec 25, 2026, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

Fri 4:30 PM ET

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

BUF 56%

44% DEN

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

46.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

BUF by 2

no lean

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 1.5-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2.2; 42.7 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Very close	ATL @ SF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	10–20	L	U46.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	30–24	W	O48
Very close	DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	27–30	L	O45.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	20–23	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	1-2

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ MIA	L13–30LU
Jan 10	vs NYJ	W35–8WO

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ NE	L7–10WU
Jan 10	vs LAC	W23–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BUF 6–6 DEN Series tied · 12 games since 2002 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 17 2025	Buffalo Bills 30 @ Denver Broncos 33	DEN -1.5	DEN W
Jan 12 2024	Denver Broncos 7 @ Buffalo Bills 31	BUF -7.5	BUF W
Nov 13 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Buffalo Bills 22	BUF -7.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

BUF

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ BUF better

#28

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.7 #7

60 plays #25

Pace

◀ BUF faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	20.8 #11	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	5.05 #13	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.04 #9	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	40% #4	Even

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	28.5 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #31	5.64 #25	BUF
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.13 #30	DEN
Success rate	38% #28	47% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

DEN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.