Bills @ Dolphins: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

BUF 76%

24% MIA

Spread

BUF -7.5

Total

47.5

model 49

Spread edge

BUF by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -7.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 41% (57 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -7.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 7.5; 50.5 points a game (usually 47). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN @ MIA 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	31–24	L	O45.5
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Very close	MIA @ WSH 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	45–15	W	O49.5
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	BUF @ MIA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	13–30	L	U50.5
Close	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Close	KC @ DEN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	9–24	L	U45.5
Close	DET @ WSH 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	44–22	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs NYJ	W35–8WO

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ NE	L10–38LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BUF 35–20 MIA BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2025	Buffalo Bills 13 @ Miami Dolphins 30	BUF -8.5	MIA W
Sep 18 2025	Miami Dolphins 21 @ Buffalo Bills 31	BUF -11.5	MIA W
Nov 3 2024	Miami Dolphins 27 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -6.5	MIA W
Sep 12 2024	Buffalo Bills 31 @ Miami Dolphins 10	MIA -2.5	BUF W
Jan 7 2023	Buffalo Bills 21 @ Miami Dolphins 14	BUF -2.5	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

BUF

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

◀ BUF better

#27

#28

Defense

Even

#26

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #28

60 plays #25

Pace

◀ BUF faster

55 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	26.4 #24	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	5.50 #21	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	+0.11 #29	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	49% #30	BUF

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	28.5 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.64 #25	MIA
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.13 #30	Even
Success rate	38% #29	47% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.