Giants @ Cowboys: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Dallas Cowboys · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

3-2-1 · Power #22

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

NYG 34%

66% DAL

Spread

DAL -4.5

Total

49.5

model 49.5

Spread edge

NYG by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDAL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 4.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 4.4; 48.8 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs MIN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	26–34	L	O47.5
Very close	DAL vs WSH 2026 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	37–20	W	O51.5
Very close	DET vs DEN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	42–17	W	O49
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	22–17	W	U47
Close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-1	3-2
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-2-1
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Giants

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs PHI	L20–38LO

Dallas Cowboys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ WSH	W37–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NYG 24–32 DAL DAL leads · 56 games since 1999 · NYG has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2026	Dallas Cowboys 20 @ New York Giants 28	DAL -3	NYG W
Jan 4 2025	Dallas Cowboys 17 @ New York Giants 34	DAL -3	NYG W
Sep 14 2025	New York Giants 37 @ Dallas Cowboys 40	DAL -4.5	NYG W
Nov 28 2024	New York Giants 20 @ Dallas Cowboys 27	DAL -4.5	DAL W
Sep 26 2024	Dallas Cowboys 20 @ New York Giants 15	DAL -5.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

NYG

Longer bar = better

DAL

#19

Offense

DAL better ▶

#11

#21

Defense

◀ NYG better

#30

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

◀ NYG better

−0.7 #27

66 plays #8

Pace

◀ NYG faster

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NYG offense

	NYG off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #19	26.5 #25	NYG
Yards / play	5.03 #20	6.04 #31	NYG
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.16 #32	NYG
Success rate	42% #18	49% #32	NYG

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	23.3 #19	DAL
Yards / play	5.49 #13	5.43 #20	DAL
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.02 #21	DAL
Success rate	47% #9	44% #22	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.8 #20	5.8 #21	9.7 #20	5.2 #13	7.8 #13	13.0 #9
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

DAL scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
NYG allowed	4.5 #15	5.5 #9	10.0 #11	7.5 #28	5.8 #8	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.