Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New York Giants · Division game
Closing spread
DAL -3
✓ NYG W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
DAL 26–24 NYG
✗ DAL (60%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDAL -2.5
CloseDAL -3
Total48.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAL -2.5
0.5 → DAL
CloseDAL -3
0.5 pts toward Dallas Cowboys
Total
Open48.5
▼ 1
Close47.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAL -2.5 · closed DAL -3 · moved 0.5 toward DALmodel Pick’em
model Pick’em
Opened 48.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 1 downmodel 50
model 50
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (134 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDAL -2.5
CloseDAL -3
Total48.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
DAL as a 3-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: NYG won 28–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.5 against an average line of 2.5; 44.1 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 29–27 | L | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2 | 7–34 | L | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 19–9 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 9–27 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 20–30 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 41–22 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-1.5 | 21–14 | W | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 19–17 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread |
-3 | 20–23 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation |
-1.5 | 28–25 | W | O47.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Dallas Cowboys have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 194 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 2-7 22% | 8-2 80% | |
| 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
DAL 32–24 NYG
DAL leads · 56 games since 1999 · NYG has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 2025 | Dallas Cowboys 17 @ New York Giants 34 | DAL -3 | NYG W |
| Sep 14 2025 | New York Giants 37 @ Dallas Cowboys 40 | DAL -4.5 | NYG W |
| Nov 28 2024 | New York Giants 20 @ Dallas Cowboys 27 | DAL -4.5 | DAL W |
| Sep 26 2024 | Dallas Cowboys 20 @ New York Giants 15 | DAL -5.5 | NYG W |
| Nov 12 2023 | New York Giants 17 @ Dallas Cowboys 49 | DAL -17.5 | DAL W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 2 mph
gusts 2 mph · at kickoff
Rest
DAL1st game
NYG1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

