Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New York Giants · Division game
Weather at kickoff76°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #20
20
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #22
28
▲ winner
Closing spread
DAL -3
✓ NYG W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
DAL 26–24 NYG
✗ DAL (60%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDAL -2.5
CloseDAL -3
Total48.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
0.5 pts toward Dallas Cowboys
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAL -2.5 · closed DAL -3 · moved 0.5 toward DALmodel Pick’em
Opened 48.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 1 downmodel 50
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (134 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDAL -2.5
CloseDAL -3
Total48.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 3-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 28–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.5 against an average line of 2.5; 44.1 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings
-3.529–27 L O48.5
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings
-27–34 L U46.5
Very close
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread
-2.519–9 W U46.5
Very close
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total
-2.59–27 L U47.5
Very close
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total
-2.520–30 L O46.5
Very close
2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.541–22 W O48.5
Very close
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings
-1.521–14 W U44.5
Very close
2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-2.519–17 L U48.5
Very close
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread
-320–23 L U44.5
Very close
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation
-1.528–25 W O47.5
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Dallas Cowboys have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 2 mph
gusts 2 mph · at kickoff
Rest
DAL1st game
NYG1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week