Mon, Sep 21, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Los Angeles Rams
Weather at kickoff75°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #22
6
final
Final
@
0-1 · Power #5
28
▲ winner
Closing spread
LAR -7
✓ LAR W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 34 pts
Model before kickoff
NYG 19–26 LAR
✓ LAR (73%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAR -8.5
CloseLAR -7
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
1.5 pts toward New York Giants
Total
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAR -8.5 · closed LAR -7 · moved 1.5 toward NYGmodel LAR -3
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 45.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 50% (107 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAR -8.5
CloseLAR -7
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for LAR as a 7-point home favorite against NYG. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Giants ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward New York Giants
1.5 pts (LAR -8.5 → LAR -7). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
New York Giants on a cross-country trip
New York Giants cross 3 time zones (2,449 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
New York Giants has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NYG−1.1 →−0.4▲ 0.7#17
LAR+3.0 →+1.6▼ 1.4#10
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

NYG
Longer bar = better
LAR
#5
Offense
◀ NYG better
#26
#18
Defense
◀ NYG better
#28
0.0 #19
Turnovers
◀ NYG better
−1.0 #28
68 plays #5
Pace
◀ NYG faster
57 plays #23
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NYG has the ball
Advantage: NYG offense
NYG offLAR defEdge
Points / game 28.0 #9 27.0 #23 NYG
Yards / play 5.79 #7 5.92 #26 NYG
EPA / play +0.37 #1 +0.18 #29 NYG
Success rate 60% #1 56% #32 NYG
When LAR has the ball
Advantage: NYG defense
LAR offNYG defEdge
Points / game 7.0 #32 20.0 #11 NYG
Yards / play 5.09 #21 4.69 #7 NYG
EPA / play −0.26 #30 +0.22 #31 Even
Success rate 43% #19 46% #23 Even

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
LAR +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 9 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NYG8d
LAR11d
LAR +3 days
Tempo
Average 125 plays
slowavg 122fast
Travel
NYG 2,449 mi
3 time zones
Quarterback
NYG backup QB started
Not on the final injury report