Mon, Sep 21, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Los Angeles Rams
Closing spread
LAR -7
✓ LAR W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 34 pts
Model before kickoff
NYG 19–26 LAR
✓ LAR (73%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAR -8.5
CloseLAR -7
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAR -8.5
1.5 → NYG
CloseLAR -7
1.5 pts toward New York Giants
Total
Open47.5
no move
Close47.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAR -8.5 · closed LAR -7 · moved 1.5 toward NYGmodel LAR -3
model LAR -3
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 45.5
model 45.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 50% (107 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAR -8.5
CloseLAR -7
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
LAR as a 7-point home favorite against NYG. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Giants ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New York Giants
1.5 pts (LAR -8.5 → LAR -7). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
New York Giants on a cross-country trip
New York Giants cross 3 time zones (2,449 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
New York Giants has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | |
| 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
NYG 7–8 LAR
LAR leads · 15 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 5 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 2023 | Los Angeles Rams 26 @ New York Giants 25 | LAR -6 | NYG W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NYG−1.1 →−0.4▲ 0.7#17
LAR+3.0 →+1.6▼ 1.4#10
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#5
Offense
◀ NYG better#26
#18
Defense
◀ NYG better#28
0.0 #19
Turnovers
◀ NYG better−1.0 #28
68 plays #5
Pace
◀ NYG faster57 plays #23
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| NYG off | LAR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 28.0 #9 | 27.0 #23 | NYG |
| Yards / play | 5.79 #7 | 5.92 #26 | NYG |
| EPA / play | +0.37 #1 | +0.18 #29 | NYG |
| Success rate | 60% #1 | 56% #32 | NYG |
| LAR off | NYG def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 7.0 #32 | 20.0 #11 | NYG |
| Yards / play | 5.09 #21 | 4.69 #7 | NYG |
| EPA / play | −0.26 #30 | +0.22 #31 | Even |
| Success rate | 43% #19 | 46% #23 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 9 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NYG8d
LAR11d
LAR +3 days
Tempo
Average 125 plays
slowavg 122fast
Travel
NYG 2,449 mi
3 time zones
Quarterback
NYG backup QB started
Not on the final injury report
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

