Dolphins @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

0-1 · Power #31

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

1-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -12.5

✓ SF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 16–28 SF

✓ SF (86%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -10.5

CloseSF -12.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -10.5

2 → SF

CloseSF -12.5

2 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -10.5 · closed SF -12.5 · moved 2 toward SFmodel SF -8

model SF -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 54% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -10.5

CloseSF -12.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like SF as a 12.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SF won 35–13; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 48 points went over 44.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 10.5; 44 points a game (usually 45.6). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
SF W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA U	0-1	0%	0-1
SF U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 245 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	3-7 30%
SF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 5–4 SF MIA leads · 9 games since 2001 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Miami Dolphins 29	SF -1.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−2.4▼ 0.7#29

SF+0.9 →+2.4▲ 1.5#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MIA

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

SF better ▶

#13

Defense

SF better ▶

0.0 #17

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+1.0 #10

50 plays #28

Pace

SF faster ▶

64 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	MIA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #26	7.0 #1	SF
Yards / play	5.18 #21	5.09 #12	SF
EPA / play	−0.24 #26	−0.26 #4	SF
Success rate	34% #31	43% #16	SF

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #14	27.0 #19	SF
Yards / play	5.92 #9	4.33 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.18 #8	−0.04 #13	SF
Success rate	56% #3	42% #14	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.