Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Arizona Cardinals · Division game
Closing spread
SEA -3.5
✓ SEA W
Total
40.5
▼ Under · 38 pts
Model before kickoff
SEA 24–21 ARI
✓ SEA (62%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSEA -10
CloseSEA -3.5
Total44.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSEA -10
6.5 → ARI
CloseSEA -3.5
6.5 pts toward Arizona Cardinals
Total
Open44.5
▼ 4
Close40.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SEA -10 · closed SEA -3.5 · moved 6.5 toward ARImodel SEA -2
model SEA -2
Opened 44.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 4 downmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (151 games)ⓘ
Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 33% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSEA -10
CloseSEA -3.5
Total44.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
SEA as a 3.5-point road favorite at ARI. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Arizona Cardinals ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Arizona Cardinals
6.5 pts (SEA -10 → SEA -3.5), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 4
44.5 → 40.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
Seattle Seahawks have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 10-0 100% | 7-2-1 78% | 4-6 40% |
 ARI | 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
SEA 31–17 ARI (1 tied)
SEA leads · 49 games since 2002 · SEA has won the last 10 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 2025 | Arizona Cardinals 22 @ Seattle Seahawks 44 | SEA -7.5 | SEA W |
| Sep 25 2025 | Seattle Seahawks 23 @ Arizona Cardinals 20 | SEA -1.5 | SEA W |
| Dec 8 2024 | Seattle Seahawks 30 @ Arizona Cardinals 18 | ARI -3.5 | SEA W |
| Nov 24 2024 | Arizona Cardinals 6 @ Seattle Seahawks 16 | ARI -1.5 | SEA W |
| Jan 7 2023 | Seattle Seahawks 21 @ Arizona Cardinals 20 | SEA -3 | ARI W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SEA+3.2 →+3.3▲ 0.1#1
ARI−1.3 →+0.1▲ 1.4#15
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
SEALonger bar = better
ARI#19
Offense
ARI better ▶#13
#8
Defense
Even#9
+3.0 #2
Turnovers
Even+2.0 #4
48 plays #31
Pace
ARI faster ▶72 plays #3
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When SEA has the ball| SEA off | ARI def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 13.0 #27 | 14.0 #9 | ARI |
| Yards / play | 5.94 #8 | 5.25 #14 | SEA |
| EPA / play | +0.07 #15 | −0.24 #5 | ARI |
| Success rate | 40% #24 | 39% #8 | ARI |
When ARI has the ball| ARI off | SEA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 26.0 #16 | 10.0 #4 | SEA |
| Yards / play | 5.46 #15 | 4.13 #5 | SEA |
| EPA / play | +0.14 #11 | −0.11 #12 | Even |
| Success rate | 49% #8 | 42% #12 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ARI +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
SEA11d
ARI7d
SEA +4 days
Tempo
Average 120 plays
slowavg 122fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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