Wed, Sep 9, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Seattle Seahawks
Closing spread
SEA -3
Push
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 23 pts
Model before kickoff
NE 21–24 SEA
✓ SEA (60%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSEA -3.5
CloseSEA -3
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSEA -3.5
0.5 → NE
CloseSEA -3
0.5 pts toward New England Patriots
Total
Open44.5
no move
Close44.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SEA -3.5 · closed SEA -3 · moved 0.5 toward NEmodel SEA -0.5
model SEA -0.5
Opened 44.5 · unchangedmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (183 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSEA -3.5
CloseSEA -3
Total44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
SEA as a 3-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: SEA won 13–10; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 3.4; 39.5 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 33–26 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 27–20 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 23–20 | W | U45.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3.5 | 27–18 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3.5 | 21–26 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 6–22 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-4.5 | 17–21 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 16–3 | W | U45.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 24–22 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 14–9 | W | U43.5 |
PHI
LAR
KC
BAL
LAC
DEN
GB
WSH
SF
JAX
MIN
ATL
HOUHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New England Patriots ATS trend Push
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
New England Patriots on a cross-country trip
New England Patriots cross 3 time zones (2,485 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
New England Patriots have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NE | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| SEA | 10-0 100% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
NE 3–6 SEA
SEA leads · 9 games since 2004 · SEA has won the last 5 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8 2025 | Seattle Seahawks 29 @ New England Patriots 13 | SEA -4.5 | SEA W |
| Sep 15 2024 | Seattle Seahawks 23 @ New England Patriots 20 | SEA -3.5 | NE W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
SEA +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 5 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NE1st game
SEA1st game
Even
Travel
NE 2,485 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
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