Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Tennessee Titans
Closing spread
TEN -1.5
✓ NYJ W
Total
39.5
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
NYJ 22–23 TEN
✗ TEN (56%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEN -3
CloseTEN -1.5
Total39.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEN -3
1.5 → NYJ
CloseTEN -1.5
1.5 pts toward New York Jets
Total
Open39.5
no move
Close39.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEN -3 · closed TEN -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward NYJmodel TEN -2.5
model TEN -2.5
Opened 39.5 · unchangedmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 51% (112 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 21% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEN -3
CloseTEN -1.5
Total39.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TEN as a 1.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: NYJ won 23–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 39.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 2.7; 39.1 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 21–18 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 42–13 | W | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3.5 | 6–10 | L | U40.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 27–21 | W | O43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-3.5 | 20–17 | L | U38.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 34–27 | W | O41.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-1.5 | 17–10 | W | U42.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings |
-3 | 28–15 | W | U43.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 13–20 | L | U44.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 1 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 22–10 | W | U40.5 |
WSH
NYG
NE
CAR
JAX
MIA
LAC
DEN
HOU
PIT
LVHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Jets ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New York Jets
1.5 pts (TEN -3 → TEN -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
New York Jets have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| TEN | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
NYJ 9–4 TEN
NYJ leads · 13 games since 2003 · NYJ has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 2024 | New York Jets 24 @ Tennessee Titans 17 | NYJ -3.5 | NYJ W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TEN +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
92° · 3 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NYJ1st game
TEN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
SEA
BAL @ 
IND
CLE @ 
BUF @ 
SF vs 
LAR
TB @ 
CIN
NO @ 
DET
ATL @ 
CHI @