Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Cincinnati Bengals
Closing spread
CIN -3.5
✓ CIN W
Total
50.5
▲ Over · 60 pts
Model before kickoff
TB 23–26 CIN
✓ CIN (62%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCIN -3.5
CloseCIN -3.5
Total50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -3.5
no move
CloseCIN -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open50.5
no move
Close50.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -3.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -1.5
model CIN -1.5
Opened 50.5 · unchangedmodel 48.5
model 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (210 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCIN -3.5
CloseCIN -3.5
Total50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: CIN won 33–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 64%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 3.3; 49.1 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 20–17 | L | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 27–20 | W | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 15–23 | L | U50.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 31–27 | W | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 17–37 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 24–22 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 27–18 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-4.5 | 42–29 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 23–28 | L | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 17–27 | L | U53.5 |
MIA
JAX
LAR
IND
PHI
GB
HOU
WSH
DET
SEA
NE
DAL
ARIHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 95 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB | 3-7 30% | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% |
| CIN | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
The series
TB 4–4 CIN
Series tied · 8 games since 2001 · CIN has won the last 4 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CIN +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
88° · 5 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TB1st game
CIN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
NO @ 
BAL @ 
ATL @ 
PIT
CHI @ 
CAR
CLE @ 
SF vs 
NYJ @ 
TEN
BUF @ 
LV