Bills @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

0-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

0-0 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

BUF -1.5

✓ BUF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 24–22 HOU

✓ BUF (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -1.5

CloseBUF -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -1.5

no move

CloseBUF -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -1.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -0.5

model BUF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (101 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -1.5

CloseBUF -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 1.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 36–31; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 1.7; 44.1 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Very close	DEN @ IND 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	28–29	L	O43.5
Very close	SF @ SEA 2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	17–13	W	U44.5
Very close	GB @ DEN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	26–34	L	O42.5
Very close	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Very close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5
Very close	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found