Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Jacksonville Jaguars
Closing spread
JAX -8.5
✓ JAX W
Total
40.5
▲ Over · 44 pts
Model before kickoff
CLE 17–26 JAX
✓ JAX (78%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenJAX -7
CloseJAX -8.5
Total40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenJAX -7
1.5 → JAX
CloseJAX -8.5
1.5 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars
Total
Open40.5
no move
Close40.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened JAX -7 · closed JAX -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward JAXmodel JAX -8
model JAX -8
Opened 40.5 · unchangedmodel 42.5
model 42.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 43% (69 games)ⓘ
Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (124 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenJAX -7
CloseJAX -8.5
Total40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
JAX as an 8.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: JAX won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 40.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 43%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 61%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 8.2; 40.4 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-8.5 | 23–26 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-9.5 | 34–10 | W | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation |
-7.5 | 20–29 | L | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread |
-7.5 | 26–0 | W | U39.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7.5 | 20–15 | L | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 23–14 | L | U41.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-7.5 | 38–20 | W | O43.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-8.5 | 27–17 | W | O40.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-8.5 | 9–10 | L | U39.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-7.5 | 21–22 | L | O41.5 |
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ARIHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Jacksonville Jaguars ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Jacksonville Jaguars
1.5 pts (JAX -7 → JAX -8.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Cleveland Browns have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 171 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CLE | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| JAX | 8-2 80% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
CLE 8–11 JAX
JAX leads · 19 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 2024 | Cleveland Browns 18 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 13 | JAX -3.5 | CLE W |
| Dec 10 2023 | Jacksonville Jaguars 27 @ Cleveland Browns 31 | CLE -2.5 | CLE W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
JAX +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
90° · 6 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CLE1st game
JAX1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
TB @ 
CIN
IND
ATL @ 
PIT
NE @ 
SF vs 
NO @ 
DET
CHI @ 
CAR
MIA @