Browns @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff86°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

0-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-1 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

TB -8.5

✓ CLE W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 17–26 TB

✗ TB (78%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -5.5

CloseTB -8.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -5.5

3 → TB

CloseTB -8.5

3 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -5.5 · closed TB -8.5 · moved 3 toward TBmodel TB -7

model TB -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 44% (71 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 33% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -5.5

CloseTB -8.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like TB as an 8.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 23–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 8 similar games. 42 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 7.4; 45.4 points a game (usually 47.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs TEN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	26–0	W	U39.5
Loose	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	ARI vs TEN 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-7.5	21–22	L	O41.5
Loose	LAR vs LV 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-7.5	20–15	L	U43.5
Loose	JAX vs CLE 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-8.5	34–10	W	O40.5
Loose	DAL vs NYG 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	40–37	L	O44.5
Loose	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & total	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Loose	CLE vs NYG 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	15–21	L	U37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
TB L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE O	1-0	100%	0-1
TB O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 200 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
TB	2-8 20%	0-10 0%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 3–4 TB TB leads · 7 games since 2002 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−1.8 →−3.0▼ 1.2#30

TB−0.2 →−0.9▼ 0.7#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CLE

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

TB better ▶

#16

#29

Defense

TB better ▶

#20

−2.0 #27

Turnovers

◀ CLE better

−3.0 #31

49 plays #29

Pace

TB faster ▶

52 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #28	33.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #14	5.57 #19	CLE
EPA / play	−0.18 #24	0.00 #15	TB
Success rate	45% #15	47% #21	CLE

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #13	34.0 #26	TB
Yards / play	5.42 #17	6.43 #28	TB
EPA / play	−0.19 #25	+0.34 #30	TB
Success rate	47% #10	60% #32	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.