Vikings @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff65°F11 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

1-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

1-0 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

✓ MIN W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 12 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 21–26 CHI

✗ CHI (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -3.5

CloseCHI -4.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -3.5

1 → CHI

CloseCHI -4.5

1 pt toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -3.5 · closed CHI -4.5 · moved 1 toward CHImodel CHI -6

model CHI -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (145 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -3.5

CloseCHI -4.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 9–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 12 points stayed under 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 4; 40.2 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Loose	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Loose	GB vs WSH 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–18	W	U47.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Loose	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Loose	NE vs LAC 2025 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	16–3	W	U45.5
Loose	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Loose	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Loose	WSH vs CHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	18–15	W	U46.5
Loose	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN W	1-0	100%	—	—
CHI W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN O	1-0	100%	1-0
CHI O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
CHI	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIN 29–26 CHI MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2025	Chicago Bears 19 @ Minnesota Vikings 17	MIN -3	CHI W
Sep 8 2025	Minnesota Vikings 27 @ Chicago Bears 24	CHI -1.5	MIN W
Dec 16 2024	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 30	MIN -6.5	MIN W
Nov 24 2024	Minnesota Vikings 30 @ Chicago Bears 27	MIN -2.5	MIN W
Nov 27 2023	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	MIN -3	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+0.3▲ 0.2#14

CHI+0.4 →+1.8▲ 1.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MIN

Longer bar = better

CHI

#20

Offense

CHI better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ MIN better

#27

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #5

61 plays #18

Pace

CHI faster ▶

70 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #3	37.0 #29	MIN
Yards / play	3.92 #31	7.71 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.18 #26	MIN
Success rate	36% #29	48% #24	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #1	22.0 #12	CHI
Yards / play	7.89 #2	6.25 #27	CHI
EPA / play	+0.41 #1	−0.17 #10	CHI
Success rate	54% #4	39% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.