Eagles @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

2-0 · Power #24

final

Final

Chicago Bears

1-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -3

✓ CHI W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 23–20 CHI

✗ PHI (61%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

ClosePHI -3

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -1.5

4.5 → PHI

ClosePHI -3

4.5 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open46.5

▼ 4

Close42.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -1.5 · closed PHI -3 · moved 4.5 toward PHImodel PHI -3.5

model PHI -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (140 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 57% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -1.5

ClosePHI -3

Total46.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 27–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 2.7 against an average line of 3; 52.9 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ NO 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	51–27	W	O42.5
Close	HOU @ BAL 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	44–10	W	O41.5
Close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Loose	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	36–22	W	O40
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	14–45	L	O45
Loose	PHI @ TB 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	9–32	L	U43
Loose	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	19–27	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
CHI WL	1-1	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OO	2-0	100%	2-0
CHI OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CHI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PHI 12–6 CHI PHI leads · 18 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2025	Chicago Bears 24 @ Philadelphia Eagles 15	PHI -7	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+1.1 →+0.9▼ 0.2#11

CHI+0.4 →+1.6▲ 1.2#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PHI

Longer bar = better

CHI

#17

Offense

CHI better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ PHI better

#19

−1.0 #26

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

0.0 #16

63 plays #14

Pace

CHI faster ▶

70 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #16	23.0 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #14	6.41 #30	PHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.06 #21	PHI
Success rate	38% #28	42% #9	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #4	21.0 #13	CHI
Yards / play	6.06 #7	4.97 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #7	+0.07 #23	CHI
Success rate	43% #16	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 30 teams

PHI scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0	14.0	14.0	3.0	7.0	10.0
CHI allowed	5.0	10.0	15.0	3.5	4.5	8.0

CHI scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	8.5	8.5	17.0	7.0	7.0	14.0
PHI allowed	5.0	4.5	9.5	3.5	8.0	11.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.