Texans @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

0-2 · Power #11

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

0-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

✓ IND W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 25–23 IND

✗ HOU (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -1.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

no move

CloseHOU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 3

Close42.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -1

model HOU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 56% (103 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -1.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 19–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 2.3; 43 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYG @ LV 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & total	-3	34–10	W	O40.5
Close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Close	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	NO @ TEN 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	34–26	W	O38.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Loose	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Loose	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Loose	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
IND LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OU	1-1	50%	0-2
IND OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 52% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
IND	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

HOU 15–34 IND (1 tied) IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Indianapolis Colts 30 @ Houston Texans 38	HOU -9.5	IND W
Nov 30 2025	Houston Texans 20 @ Indianapolis Colts 16	IND -3.5	HOU W
Oct 27 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Houston Texans 23	HOU -4.5	IND W
Sep 8 2024	Houston Texans 29 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	HOU -3.5	IND W
Jan 6 2023	Houston Texans 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 19	HOU -1.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.1▼ 1.3#10

IND+0.7 →−1.9▼ 2.6#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

HOU

Longer bar = better

IND

#24

Offense

IND better ▶

#17

#19

Defense

◀ HOU better

#32

−1.0 #26

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #25

76 plays #1

Pace

◀ HOU faster

58 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #21	37.0 #32	HOU
Yards / play	5.00 #25	7.25 #32	HOU
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.27 #32	HOU
Success rate	40% #24	53% #30	HOU

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #11	28.0 #25	IND
Yards / play	5.00 #24	6.09 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #18	+0.06 #19	Even
Success rate	45% #13	35% #3	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

HOU scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	1.5	5.0	6.5
IND allowed	12.0	12.0	24.0	3.5	6.5	10.0

IND scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.5	10.0	16.5	1.5	7.0	8.5
HOU allowed	1.5	14.0	15.5	6.5	6.0	12.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.