Chiefs @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff87°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

2-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

0-2 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

KC -10

✓ KC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 27–18 MIA

✓ KC (80%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -7

CloseKC -10

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -7

3 → KC

CloseKC -10

3 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -7 · closed KC -10 · moved 3 toward KCmodel KC -3.5

model KC -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -7

CloseKC -10

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 10-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.3 against an average line of 8.7; 50.7 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET @ CIN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	37–24	W	O48.5
Loose	NE @ CIN 2025 · Week 12 · loose	-7.5	26–20	L	U50.5
Loose	LAR @ ARI 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	45–17	W	O49.5
Loose	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Loose	LAC @ TEN 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-9.5	27–20	L	O44.5
Loose	DEN @ LV 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-8.5	24–17	L	O40.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-12.5	42–10	W	O42.5
Loose	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Loose	BAL @ ARI 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	31–24	L	O45
Loose	IND @ TEN 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	41–20	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
MIA LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UO	1-1	50%	2-0
MIA UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	2-8 20%
MIA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KC 8–3 MIA KC leads · 11 games since 2002 · KC has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 13 2023	Miami Dolphins 7 @ Kansas City Chiefs 26	KC -4.5	KC W
Nov 5 2023	Miami Dolphins 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 21	MIA -1	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+2.9▲ 2.2#5

MIA−1.7 →−3.3▼ 1.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

◀ KC better

#26

#10

Defense

◀ KC better

#27

+1.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ KC better

0.0 #19

73 plays #3

Pace

◀ KC faster

53 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #3	31.0 #29	KC
Yards / play	6.31 #6	5.79 #23	KC
EPA / play	+0.20 #5	+0.17 #29	KC
Success rate	49% #6	49% #26	KC

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	MIA off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #31	20.0 #11	KC
Yards / play	5.12 #18	4.59 #4	KC
EPA / play	−0.11 #27	−0.06 #10	KC
Success rate	38% #28	43% #16	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

KC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.5	7.0	15.5	8.5	5.0	13.5
MIA allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	15.5	0.0	15.5

MIA scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	0.0	6.0	6.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
KC allowed	7.0	6.5	13.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.